We always experience times in markets where buy or sell opinions are debated daily. Seldom do those possibilities diverge as much as we are seeing today. Economic pessimism seems rampant, driven by politics, global conflict, rising interest rates, and inflation. However, U.S. economic resilience has been remarkable despite substantial obstacles. We see some pockets of opportunity in markets and will…
While there has been significant market stress and negative news, the markets have held up reasonably well. We will have a more thorough review of equity investments next week after seeing some key earnings reports. In the meantime, we wanted to briefly update you and focus on what we see are significant opportunities in fixed-income markets (bonds). As measured by…
Yes, SVB’s (Silicon Valley Bank) failure at the end of last week is a big deal; but first things first—the immediate risk for your cash is not a concern. SVB’s failure got so dire that the Federal Reserve Bank voted to shut it down. This morning, the Federal Reserve Bank also took over Signature Bank; there may be more to…
Crazy Times? In January, growth stocks (most in the technology sector) continued rebounding from mid-October lows. While the rebound was impressive and seemed to break the price downtrend, the S&P technology sector had lost close to one-third of its value before bottoming. While some might breathe a sigh of relief, we think this is just a reprieve, and the stock…
TGIF takes on a new meaning as we close another lousy week in global markets in a bad month and bad year. There are precious few assets that have not lost money, and about the only asset class with positive returns for the year, energy, had a terrible week. We will take the opportunity over the next week to continue…
Historically, a 60/40 portfolio of stocks (60%) and bonds (40%) has, to many, been a standard bearer of asset allocation. So, it is striking to see headlines quoting a report from Bank of America Global Research showing this broad allocation is on track for its worst year since 1936, having lost 19.4% year-to-date. Of course, it is not pleasant to…
Before the Russian invasion in Ukraine dominated the headlines, we were worried about the following: Inflation increasing Growth slowing down Federal Reserve action on interest rates While Russian action may exacerbate inflation and result in some short-term drag on growth, the effect on our economy is likely to be somewhat limited. Of course, any escalation into greater Europe is…
A correction results when stocks decline by 10% (in Wall Street jargon), and the market has reached those levels. The most widely held index, the S&P 500, was down 12% YTD earlier today. Many asset classes have dropped by at least 10%, with the Russell 2000 down 20% YTD. The big question we all face is whether we are heading…
“One hot mess” seems to be a prevailing theme as we collectively face multiple challenges. In response to recent economic events, we recently made some relatively modest allocation changes by decreasing stock exposure. The main positive is that we continue to experience economic growth in a low-interest-rate environment. Moreover, the probability that Congress will pass additional fiscal stimulus with the…
After a long advance, stock markets are now experiencing a pullback from record levels. There appears to be increasing angst about inflation and coming tax increases creating fear among some that the market is due for a much more substantial sell off. We do not think a severe correction is on the immediate horizon, but a further pullback in the…
