Before the Russian invasion in Ukraine dominated the headlines, we were worried about the following: Inflation increasing Growth slowing down Federal Reserve action on interest rates While Russian action may exacerbate inflation and result in some short-term drag on growth, the effect on our economy is likely to be somewhat limited. Of course, any escalation into greater Europe is…
A correction results when stocks decline by 10% (in Wall Street jargon), and the market has reached those levels. The most widely held index, the S&P 500, was down 12% YTD earlier today. Many asset classes have dropped by at least 10%, with the Russell 2000 down 20% YTD. The big question we all face is whether we are heading…
“One hot mess” seems to be a prevailing theme as we collectively face multiple challenges. In response to recent economic events, we recently made some relatively modest allocation changes by decreasing stock exposure. The main positive is that we continue to experience economic growth in a low-interest-rate environment. Moreover, the probability that Congress will pass additional fiscal stimulus with the…
After a long advance, stock markets are now experiencing a pullback from record levels. There appears to be increasing angst about inflation and coming tax increases creating fear among some that the market is due for a much more substantial sell off. We do not think a severe correction is on the immediate horizon, but a further pullback in the…
Market Outlook Update As we look ahead into the second year of the pandemic, there is optimism that the worst may be behind us. This leads us to ask, what next? Some of the themes are continuing as expected, which bodes well for continued stock market strength across the globe. An expected increase in Emerging Market stocks cooled off in…
We are sending you a very brief summary of the recently passed Coronavirus Stimulus 2.0 along with a link to a well-done article in Business Week about how COVID-19 may be changing our lives going forward. Six months after the expiration of the CARES Act, the Senate finally engaged in a serious process to extend badly needed benefits with a…
In the presence of chaos and uncertainty, it is important to set strong filters to separate the noise from actionable items. One area where taking action can possibly make a difference is taxes. We will likely have a split government but even if both Democratic senate candidates win their run-off election in January, it will be extremely unlikely to see…
Although the race has not been called, it certainly looks like Vice-President Biden will be called the winner by this evening or tomorrow morning. These results will not be official and legal wrangling may continue over the next week. The election result will not change. The Senate is highly likely to stay in Republican hands. The most probable outcome is…
“What’s natural is the microbe. All the rest — health, integrity, purity (if you like) — is a product of the human will, of a vigilance that must never falter. The good man, the man who infects hardly anyone, is the man who has the fewest lapses of attention.” Albert Camus, The Plague As we head into next week, many are concerned about how…
The debate on Tuesday night was not productive for understanding policy changes and how they will affect markets. While there are more investors who feel Trump’s policies are better for markets than Biden’s, there is no need to panic if Biden wins the election. In fact, it would be difficult to discern who would be better for the stock market…
